I've been chewing over the
Boundary Commission's proposals for the Birmingham area - here are my
observations so far:
Winners
Cllr Robert Alden (Conservative, Erdington Ward). Bobby was
our Parliamentary candidate for Erdington last time and is hot favourite to be
again. The absorption of Sutton New Hall and Castle Bromwich and the removal of
Kingstanding makes this a very winnable Conservative seat.
Gisela Stuart MP (Labour, Edgbaston). I'm sticking my neck
out a bit on this one. Edgbaston becomes almost unrecognisable from its current
state, with the bulk of the existing constituency going into new Birmingham
Harborne. The revised Edgbaston, full of right-on students (Selly Oak) and
champagne socialists (Moseley), looks good for Labour. I'm not entirely sure
how Labour selects its candidates, but as the nominal incumbent, Ms Stuart
surely has the edge in getting selected.
Keely Huxtable (Conservative, former PC for Northfield)
or Cllr Nigel Dawkins (Conservative,
Bournville). Keely and Nigel both came close to winning Northfield and Selly
Oak respectively in the last General Election. Nigel's ward goes into the new
Northfield at the expense of Weoley, making this a very winnable seat for the
Conservatives. Both have a claim to be selected for this constituency.
One as yet unidentified
Conservative. All-new Birmingham Harborne, consisting of Harborne,
Quinton, Bartley Green, Weoley and Old Warley, should be a definite Tory
target. The PPC for this seat will have an excellent chance.
Losers
Rt Hon Liam Byrne MP (Labour, Hodge Hill). 'Dear Mr Byrne, I’m
afraid to tell you there's no constituency left.' (Hopefully I'm the first
person to make this crack, but I suspect not.)
Steve McCabe MP (Labour, Selly Oak). Selly Oak vanishes
under the new proposals; along with Liam Byrne, he will have a fight on his
hands to get selected for a different and winnable seat. Mind you, he's managed
it once before.
John Hemming MP (Lib
Dem, Yardley). John can't be happy with losing Sheldon in
exchange for Bordesley Green.
Neither
Rt Hon Andrew Mitchell MP (Conservative, Sutton Coldfield). Andrew
will rightly be aggrieved at the loss of part of Sutton Coldfield from the
constituency that bears its name, but he is a very hard-working and
high-profile figure and I doubt that his tenure will come under serious
challenge.
Roger Godsiff MP (Labour, Hall Green). The redrawn Hall
Green swaps a fading challenge from Respect for Lab/Lib and Lab/Tory marginals.
I wouldn't expect this has given Mr Godsiff either a sleepless night or reason
to open any bottles of champagne.
Shabana Mahmood MP (Labour, Ladywood). Swapping Aston and Soho
for Hodge Hill and Washwood Heath is hardly tearing the heart out of this
rock-solid Labour seat. I don't think that talk of a challenge from Liam Byrne
will come to anything.
Khalid Mahmood MP (Labour, Perry Barr). See above.
